Steward Observatory and the Department of Astronomy, The
      University of Arizona
      *A Collaborative Undertaking and Flight Project Planned and
      Implemented by: 
      
      (U. Arizona), Tim Todd (
              A total solar eclipse
                (TSE) is, unequivocally, one of nature’s grandest spectacles and most awe-inspiring
                events that we can see with our own eyes! But, the elusiveness of the path of totality for TSE 2021 (Figure
                1) has left many eclipse-chasers fretting and asking “how
                the heck am I going to get there?”
                We now can answer as we have planned and are vigorously
                pursuing a unique opportunity to view the eclipse from
                two high-altitude jetliners in a near-sunrise moonshadow
                rendezvous, above the otherwise high-probability
                occurrence of clouds below.
        
        
            
        
         
        Figure 1. TSE 2021 path of totality and
          EFLIGHT 2021-SUNRISE circumstances tabulation. 
          Yellow 
“+
” marks the
          location  of our on-centerline Mid-Eclipse Intercept
          (MEI) for our ex-Punta Arenas Airbus A321-200 eclipse-flight
          charter. 
          By comparison, on the Earth
’s
          surface, at the much more distant point of greatest duration (
GD) eclipse, totality is
          only 9 seconds longer than will be seen from our aircraft.
          See 
HERE
          for the representative extent of circum-Antarctic sea-ice
          extrusion for early December.
        
 
       
      
      
        The “Sunrise”
                  Mid-Eclipse Intercept (07:02:14 UTC)
        
        
                   The Moon’s umbral shadow touches
              down on the Earth’s surface along our planet’s night/day
              terminator nearly due east of Punta Arenas. This,
              serendipitously, is both the closest launch point (along
              with Ushuaia, which we considered but declined) and
              shortest flight-time for a charter flight to reach
              centerline, and in particular the MEI target-point for our
              “sunrise” EFLIGHT. At this location, and instant of time,
              the trajectory of the lunar umbral shadow stretching back 
              
              approximately
              400,000 km into space will emanate from the
              totally-eclipsed Sun on the astronomical horizon
              (everywhere 90° from the zenith). Second-by-second, during
              the 1m 45s of our airborne totality as the surface
              projection of the shadow rapidly decelerates, the lunar
              umbra will horizontally sweep around, over, and then
              engulf the aircraft in darkness like a broad
              darkness-inverted searchlight beam. Those who have seen a
              similar phenomenon from the ground (e.g., Figure 3) have
              described the effect there as “God’s bowling alley”. This
              will be even more accentuated with the 390/380 km distant
              terrestrial horizon at 39,000/37,000 ft depressed by
              3.5°/3.4° from the astronomical horizon (coincident with
              the origin of the shadow) as we fly at Mach 0.78
              (approximately 447 kts true air speed) centrally through
              the darkness of the Moon’s umbral shadow.
              
            
        
         
        Figure
3.
                  “God’s bowling alley” (TSE 2002 December 04 UTC) as photographed by Carter Roberts at sea level from
                  Lyndhurst, South Australia.   
                  The eclipsed Sun is 4° above the
                  at-sea-level-coincident astronomical and terrestrial
                  horizons.  
                  For our EFLIGHT 2021-SUNRISE the totally
                  eclipsed Sun will be ON the astronomical horizon, but
                  with the apparent (terrestrial) horizon depressed by
                  3.5°.
        
        
                   While the “big
              show”, of course, is totality, the proximity of Punta
              Arenas to the sunrise line at umbral touchdown on the
              Earth provides a unique opportunity to observe TSE 2021
              totality with the rapidly decelerating shadow cone grazing
              tangentially along the surface of the Earth (e.g., see
              Figure 3 with a similar geometry at mid-eclipse). From our
              lofty EFLIGHT venue our SUNRISE aircraft will provide some
              of the most esthetically stunning views of the opening
              terrestrial traverse of the lunar umbra.
              
                
Our
              “Totality Run” (TR) approach to the MEI (where at MEI itself
              the center of the lunar umbra first and fully obliquely
              touches down on the Earth at 39,000/37,000 ft AMSL) begins
              25.2 minutes prior to mid-total eclipse. At that “TR
              Start” time (06:37:02 UTC) the lower limb of the Sun
              in partial eclipse will touch and then rise over the
              -3.5°/-3.4° depressed terrestrial horizon (see Figure 4).
              The increasingly partially-eclipsed Sun then ascends
              toward totality with a diminishing solar photospheric
              crescent fully obscured by the Moon at the end of the C2
              diamond ring at 07:01:23, heralding the start of 1m 45s of
              totality.
              
            
        
        Figure 4. Schematic depiction
          of Sun rising during partial eclipse ingress from 39,000 ft as
          seen from EFLIGHT 2021-SUNRISE with the Sun’s lower limb on the terrestrial
          horizon at the start of the Totality Run.
        
        
                
              Though only the “opening
              act” preceding totality, this proximal MEI location
              to Punta Arenas and within the MPN ETOPS60 circle permits
              us to program an approach for the SUNRISE totality run
              track that will initially present a 47% (obscured by area)
              partially eclipsed Sun at lower-limb sunrise. The partially-eclipsed sunrise also marking
              the start of our “totality
              run”, like totality itself, will be visible from the left side of the aircraft*. 
              (*Due to the low elevation angle of the eclipse, from a few seat rows flanking the third
              emergency exit door the aircraft wing itself will block this view,
              and the view of totality as well. Thus, these few specific rows
              will not be used for eclipse viewing.)
              
                    At this extreme
              line-of-sight sunrise viewing geometry, as the Sun ascends
              the apparent horizon, its partially-lunar-occluded disk
              may take on an oblate or even more extreme morphologically
              distorted shape due to differential atmospheric refraction
              with the possibility of a partially-eclipsed
omega
                effect, or even more
extreme
              distortions and/or a green
                flash while rising in partial-eclipse.
              
                    At our 07:02:14 MEI, thanks
              to the aircraft altitude, the totally eclipsed Sun will gloriously stand approximately 3.5°, i.e., 14 solar radii, above
              the depressed terrestrial horizon and “straight
              out” the left-side passenger windows. There, the
              umbral axis will lie in the horizontal plane parallel to
              surface of the Earth with the Moon’s
              conical shadow stretched out and over the astronomical
              horizon as seen in perspective sweeping over a distance of
              nearly 400 km, framing the Sun’s
              magnificent corona as it circumscribes and enshrouds the
              ashen lunar disk for a stunning, ethereal 1m 45s of
              totality.
              
                    This will be a TSE viewing flight of an entirely
              different flavor!
        
        
          CENTERLINE and Mid-Eclipse-Intercept (MEI)
                 
          
                       The total phase of TSE 2021
                  is optimally viewed from along the “centerline” of the
                  PoT midway between the northern and southern path
                  limits. The very center of the Moon’s shadow, which traces out the centerline of
                  the PoT, is where (for any location along the path)
                  the totality duration is longest, the sky is darkest (amazingly so at 39,000/37,000 ft*), and the view of totality is optimal. (*At their high-level eclipse-viewing altitudes
              both aircraft will be above 
              
              approximately
              80% of the Earth’s atmosphere
              and will put us into the tropopause, where the concerns of
              sub-polar weather (and clouds) will remain in the
              troposphere below.) Our
                  EFLIGHT is
                  designed to be precisely on centerline just as the
                  Moon’s shadow axis reaches that centrally-located
                  position of the aircraft, i.e., this is the UTC
                  time-correlated point of “Mid-Eclipse Intercept” (MEI)
                  around which the rest of the flight is planned.
                
                       The centerline of the path of
                  totality, for all practical purposes, may be expressed
                  as a (UTC) time-correlated set of waypoints (latitude,
                  longitude) that maps out the central position of the
                  Moon’s umbral shadow as it traverses the Earth. In
                  principle, totality may be seen (where accessible and
                  not cloudy on the ground) anywhere along that path.
                  The TSE 2021 eclipse geometry and local circumstances
                  guide us in selecting our MEI location in concert and
                  in conformance with normal aircraft performance
                  characteristics and ETOPS60 operational limitations –
                  and (most importantly!) above otherwise potentially
                  problematic sub-polar cloudy weather. 
          
          
          
         
         
        BASELINE
                  End-to-End Plan
                
         
                  
                Routing: The EFLIGHT 2021-SUNRISE flight plan can
              be best described as an 
              
              approximately
              5-1/2 hour round-trip flight to/from the same originating
              location, Punta Arenas, with the inclusion of an
              additional critically-defined approximately half-hour leg
              called the “Totality Run” (TR). It is from there that for
              1m 45s, totality centered on 07:02:14 UTC will be observed
              with the aircraft concentrically located along the axis of
              the Moon’s
              umbral cone at the instant of mid-eclipse. The turn onto
              the totality run is immediately preceded by a contingency,
              real-time tunable, “circle and hold” (C&H) segment for UTC ground-track synchronization of
              the start of the TR in the event of a delayed take-off
              from Punta Arenas. The end-to-end basically “triangular”
              EFLIGHT plans PUQ→eclipse→PUQ can then be described as: 
            
        
          - take-off (“wheels-up” not
                  push-back) 
 
          - airport pattern departure and
                  ascent to top-of-cruise (TOC)
 
          - outbound cruise toward totality
                  run 
 
          - contingency circle and hold for
                  up to 45 minutes for UTC synchronization
 
          - release onto totality run at
                  UTC-correlated TRSTART waypoint (lower-limb sunrise at
                  TRSTART)
                 
          - totality run (inclusive of, and
                  anchored on, the UTC-correlated MEI point)
                 
          - inbound return to
                  start-of-descent (SOD)
 
          - descent and pattern approach 
 
          - landing
 
        
        where (1 – 3) and (7 – 9) are as usual
              on any flight, but here with (4 – 6) augmenting the usual
              “point-to-point” plan with the inclusion of the
              time-critical Totality Run.  
              
                   Aircraft:
              We have proceeded with our baseline planning for our
              chartered Airbus A321-200, ETOPS60 rated aircraft, as we are
              fine-tuning the operational details of their joint flight
              plan with our aircraft provider/operator, LATAM Airlines.
              We predicate our baseline plans for a true air speed (TAS)
              of 447 kts (Mach 0.78) for the Totality Run in particular,
              also assumed as cruise speed for other pre- and
              post-requisite flight segments in straight-and-level
              flight. 
              
                  Flight
                Duration (with 45-minute in-air contingency margin):
              For baseline plan definition and tolerance with in-segment
              flight-time variation for actual winds aloft we assume no
              winds, but provide margins in the end-to-end plan to
              compensate for actual winds aloft in flight. With these
              baseline assumptions we estimate the end-to-end duration
              as closely proximate to 5.5 hours. Preliminary estimated
              time of departure (ETD) = 03:39 UTC ex-Punta Arenas (to be
              updated/confirmed).
              
            
         BASELINE
                  Totality Run
                
          
         
                   Predicated by the MEI UTC and location
              for EFLIGHT
              2021-SUNRISE flight, the end-to-end baseline totality run
              may be represented in simple parametric form with three
              key time-correlated waypoints defined by their start, MEI,
              and end. We enter the TR run track 25.2 minutes prior to
              MEI (allowing for pre-totality sunrise viewing). The TR
              ends 6 minutes after MEI.
              
            
        
          
            
              
                Totality Run Waypoint 
                 | 
                UTC (hh:mm:ss) 
                 | 
                Aircraft Longitude 
                 | 
                Aircraft Latitude 
                 | 
              
              
                TRSTART 
                 | 
                06:37:02 
                 | 
                W04806.112 
                 | 
                S5006.932 
                 | 
              
              
                MEI 
                 | 
                07:02:14 | 
                W05110.202 
                 | 
                S5234.421 
                 | 
              
              
                TREND 
                 | 
                07:08:14 
                 | 
                W05157.054 
                 | 
                S5308.783 
                 | 
              
            
          
          (all coordinates WGS84
            referential datum)
          
         
        
             CLICK HERE
              for a
              multi-parametric tabulation of this Totality Run with 1
              minute time granularity w.r.t. MEI after ETOPS60-limited
              TRSTART (START). 
            
              CLICK HERE for an explanation of the multi-parametric
              tabulation.
              
              
            
         TIMING
                  CONTINGENCIES (pre-planning for success)
        
        
                   The PUQ→eclipse→PUQ EFLIGHT plan
              is designed with more than sufficient time to execute all
              flight segments. In the unlikely event of a take-off delay, or
              with unfavorable outbound winds, our pre-planned,
              expendable,
              C&H leg provides an additional in-flight margin of up to 45 minutes for the
              successful attainment of the MEI exactly as planned.
              Beyond this margin, we have further contingency
              flexibility to modify the TR if necessary, maintaining the
              same MEI by shortening the length of its pre-C2 TR segment
              by up to approximately 20 additional minutes.
              
              
            
        COMPARATIVE RISK
                  ASSESSMENT - TSE 2021
        
        
        
                     Ground-based (including
              sea-going) TSE observations are inherently “risky”
              due to the ever-present possibility of uncooperative
              weather. This is the case, in particular, from sky cover
              obscuration due to clouds, fog, or precipitation that
              differ from eclipse to eclipse and with location.  E.g., for statistical expectations and
              discussion specifically germane for TSE 2021 see HERE.
              Therein the risk of cloud cover obscuring totality for
              locations reachable by ship is summarized by
              eclipse-weather expert Jay Anderson as “Over the oceans, cloud cover
                averages more than 90% {!}” 
              
              
                     When path access is limited (as extremely so for
              TSE 2021) but not impossible, and nature conspires against
              us with high risk of obscuring clouds, some will nonetheless (grudgingly) accept such risks when
              no other alternatives are presented.
              
                   Such high-risk scenarios,
              however, are eliminated by employing a high-altitude jet aircraft as a
              platform for eclipse observations.  Risk is never
              entirely mitigated, but typically can be reduced to at
              most a few percent.  E.g., while the statistical
              expectation of opaque cloud above 39,000/37,000 ft is
              vanishingly small for a sub-polar eclipse such as TSE 2021
              where we plan to intercept, it is non-zero due to other
              remote possibilities.  E.g., one could posit various,
              but highly unlikely, reasons the point-of-departure
              airport could shut down due to low-probability events, but
              the percentage
              “chance”
              of that occurring at requisite take-off time is counted
              generously on fingers far less than on one hand.  
              
                   In the case of our EFLIGHT 2021-SUNRISE
              scenario, the risk of not seeing totality is somewhat “high”
              by airplane expectations (but extremely low compared to anything
              else!). That risk is about 4%, and potential flight
              participants must understand (and accept) this risk. 
              
              
                   This risk comes about from the
              necessity to plan a requisite contingency ETOPS60
              diversion landing return specifically at the Royal Air
              Force (UK) Mt. Pleasant airport (MPN) in the Falkland
              (Malvinas) Islands.  MPN is the only existing
              facility for such planning that allows us to boot-strap
              with an ETOPS60 hop to the path of totality (see Figure
              2).  During the months of November and December
              (climatologically representative of the December 4 eclipse
              time of year), approximately 4%* of the time, MPN
              experiences a high-wind phenomenon known as “rotor
              winds” – severe low-level turbulence causing a
              temporary closing of the runway until subsidence. 
              (*Based on prior year NOTAMS
              (Notice to Airmen) statistics; e.g., in 2018 MPN was
              closed to air traffic for a total of 61 hours out of
              1464.)  While we do not plan at all to land at MPN,
              it must be available (open) to us while we are in the air.
              Thus, if the MPN runway closes for this reason (or is
              forecast/predicted to close) during that time, we would
              not be permitted to take off from PUQ.  To put in
              perspective in comparison to the “next
              best” option by ship, the statistical expectation of
              the likelihood of success by deploying into a cloud-free
              sky with EFLIGHT 2021-SUNRISE is 
              
              approximately
              96%, whereas the “odds”
              of successfully viewing the eclipse on the ocean are <
              10% (per quoted reference from J. Anderson, above).
            
                
              
        WINDOW-SHARING
and
                ECLIPSE-VIEWING
        
        
                 
            Probably the
              most often asked questions related to the aircraft windows
              for eclipse viewing are:
            
        
          - “What are the aircraft windows like?”
 
          - “Could I share a window in an eclipse-viewing
                  seat row with a partner to watch the eclipse?”
 
        
            From our many past
              experiences we can answer as follows:
              
              1a) QUALITY:
              Commercial aircraft windows are not research-grade optics.
              Nonetheless, if not optically degraded in some fashion,
              such windows are typically more than well suited for
              visual and/or binocular viewing of TSEs, and for wide- to
              intermediate-field photographic imaging and even
              low-resolution spectroscopy.  Several examples are
              offered below. This, of course, depends upon the window
              quality. LATAM is aware to provide us with the best -
              i.e., typically the newest - two A321-200
              
              ’s in their fleet that they
              possibly can, with defect-free, distortion-free, and
              scratch/sleek-free windows being a top priority. Aircraft with more than a minimal number of
              such window artifacts will be rejected from our
              consideration. Window cleanliness (free of dust, dirt,
              oils, or any other light-scattering materials or
              particulates), of course, is also essential; and
              well-proven protocols for pre-EFLIGHT window cleaning
              (without leaving residual streaks) are called out in a
              technical annex to our charter requirements. 
              
              Though no photographs can come close to reproducing the
              magnificent views captured on our retinas and interpreted
              by our visual cortices, here are a few images taken on
              prior EFLIGHTs through their aircraft windows indicative
              of their suitability for TSE observing.
              
            
        Wide-Field
Imaging:
                View from EFLIGHT 2015 March 20 UTC over the Norwegian
                Sea at Second Contact, 35,000 ft.
        
        
        Canon
                EOS 5D Mark III Digital SLR at ISO 1600, 1/60th sec,
                14mm EFL f/2.8 Rokinon IF ED UMC Ultra Wide-Angle Lens
                used at f/4.
                Glenn Schneider and Geoff Simms
              
        
            
        Coronal
Imaging
              from EFLIGHT
                2015 over the Norwegian Sea, 35,000 ft.
              
        
          
            
              Inner
                Corona 
               | 
              Mid+Outer
                Corona 
               | 
            
            
                
               | 
                
               | 
            
          
        
        Nikon
                D3000 + 300 mm f/5.6 VR lens (ISO 800) – handheld. Left:
                single frame, right: 5 frame stepped exposure time
                composite.
                Glenn Schneider
                
                Click HERE
                for some remarkable HDR coronal imaging from EFLIGHT
                2003 November 23-24 UTC by Miloslav Druckmüller and
                David Finlay – Antarctica, 35,000 ft.
               
        
            
        Totality Time-Resolved
            Coronal Ramp Up/Down Imaging from EFLIGHT 2010 July 11 UTC –
            South Pacific, 39,000 ft.
        
        
        Nikon
                DX3 camera at ISO 200 and VR 80-400 mm lens at 400 mm
                f/5.6. (Double-click on the image mosaic to view at
                larger scale.)
                Glenn Schneider
              
        
            
        Near-Infrared (0.7 to 1.0
            micron)
            Chromospheric “Flash” Spectrum at C2 from EFLIGHT 2019-MAX
            (July 2) – 1,100 km N. of Easter Island, 41,000 ft.
          
        
        
        
              
              1b) METROLOGY.
              Below is an annotated photograph that shows the Airbus
              A320-family window metrology. This particular photo was
              actually taken from our EFLIGHT 2010 aircraft, which was
              an Airbus A319 CJ/LR. The window metrology and spacing,
              however, is identical
              to the A321-200
              
              ’s we will
              use for EFLIGHT 2021-SUNRISE (except where
              exit row doors interrupt the otherwise uniform spacing of
              the windows).
              
              
            C
                  =  53 cm    Inter-window
                  centerline distance
                             
(most
                  windows; a few have larger inter-window spacings)
                L =  30
                  cm    Clear-area with trim gasket
                  window-length
                W =  21
                  cm    Clear-area with trim gasket
                  window-width
                T = 114 cm   
                  Top of window to floor vertical distance
                B =  86
                  cm    Bottom of window (actual surface,
                  not trim) to floor vertical distance
                D =   0
                  cm    Top of window protrusion distance
                  vertical to cabin floor edge [a]
               θ = 14 deg 
                    Tilt angle (top inward) of window with respect
                  to vertical [b]
                
              [a]
                The right panel figure indicates a downward projection
                of the window top onto the floor is inboard (by a
                distance D) of bottom of the actually slightly curved
                wall. 
                      This is typically actually
                zero, but the cosmetic wall floor panel may be different
                in our charter aircraft.
                [b] The windows themselves, as mounted on the aircraft
                fuselage, are tilted inward at the top by approximately
                14°.
                  
              
        
          2) WINDOW SHARING.
                  The low vertical angle of the Sun (on the horizontal
                  plane, 3.5°/3.4° above the terrestrial horizon at
                  39,000/37,000 ft) will greatly facilitate “window sharing” for those contemplating an observing
                  partner, which can be much more problematic (and
                  contorting!) for high-solar-elevation-angle eclipse
                  flights. To aid in visualization, we have a
                  high-fidelity window template from Airbus that, if you
                  print to actual size, you can tape to a wall following
                  the dimensions above and try for yourself. Click HERE
                  for that template. So the answer to this second question is –
                  yes.  Note that the number of windows accessible
                  to any seat row will vary from 1.0 to 2.0, with some
                  rows providing partial access to a second
                  window.  As a result, some seat rows are more
                  amenable to window-sharing than others. 
             
          
                  The EFLIGHT 2021-SUNRISE  TEAM – Points of
                  Contact and Pedigree