RESULTS OF THE SOLAR ECLIPSE CONFERENCE 2011/2012 POLL

A public internet-based poll, announced through the Solar Eclipse Mailing List with approximately 500 subscribing members, was launched in the 1st quarter of 2009 to solicit opinions concerning the organization of the next International Solar Eclipse Conference (SEC).  While SEML members do not constitute the totality of eclipse enthusiasts worldwide, the hope was that its responding subscribers were a representative nucleus of those who might have interest in, and attend, as past SECs have been largely attended by SEML subscribers. In soliciting responses, the poll was summarized as follows:

"Three highly successful International Solar Eclipse Conferences (SEC) have been held since 2000 (2000 in Belgium, 2004 in the UK, and 2007 in the USA). These conferences have brought together professional and amateur astronomers, eclipse chasers, and others from around the globe with diverse interests in solar eclipses (scientific, esthetic, historical, imaging technologies, expedition planning, etc.). Discussion has been evolving about the planning of the next SEC through the “Solar Eclipse Mailing List” (implemented as a Yahoo group) to be convened, likely, in the 2011-2012 timeframe. See here for information on the most recent SEC2007: http://xjubier.free.fr/en/site_pages/solar_eclipses/SEC_20070824_26_pg01.html. “Traditionally” these conferences (thus far) have been held in “off years” -- years in which no total solar eclipse has occurred, but this is not an a priori constraint for the next SEC (though may, or may not, be preferable for some). Given economic (travel cost) and schedule constraints on potential attendees, the question of holding the next SEC in conjunction with an upcoming solar eclipse (where large numbers of potential SEC attendees may already be geographically focused) has arisen. This poll is soliciting input from those who are, or may be likely, to attend the next SEC, to better understand if there is a strong preference for location and schedule of the next SEC; in particular (but not exclusively) to be coupled, or separated, from an upcoming eclipse. Given the global nature of the SEC there likely will be a diversity of opinion. This poll is intended to help guide the organizer(s) of the next conference in putting forth a conference schedule and venue."


One hundred people responded to the SEC201x solar eclipse conference survey.  The results, I believe, are fairly unequivocal -- at least by raw numbers. A high-level summary appears below, and additional details in response may be viewed at: http://www.misterpoll.com/polls/401919/results.

Others can independently evaluate/analyze the responses for themselves, but at the "highest level" it appears the most commonly favorable circumstances for the next SEC is (in summary) as follows (listing order does not imply relative ranking):

    - Summer of 2011
    - Unallocated with any solar/lunar eclipse
    - In North America
    - At an economical conference venue
 
SPECIFIC QUESTIONS/RESPONSES & RESULTS

[1] YEAR for the Conference 2011 or 2012?

One hundred people (all responding to the poll) answered this question.

  25% expressed no preference - equally favoring either 2011 or 2012

  Of the 75% with a preference, 2011 was favored by nearly a 2:1 margin:
             64% of those with a preference favoring 2011
             36% of those with a preference favoring 2012

Analysis: The year of the conference should be 2011


[2] LOCATION of Conference if in 2011

Only those 75% who either preferred 2011 or had no year preference (see [1]) were asked to respond.  73 people answered this question.

   9.6% expressed no preference as to the geographic location of a 2011 conference.

   Of the 90.4% of those with a preferential location:
              42.5%, a significant pluratity by and an appx 2:1 ratio over second place Europe, favored North America
              22.0%, (second place) favored Europe
              16.4%, (third place) favored India
               1% - 3% preferred other individual locations  - see graphic

Analysis: A 2011 conference should be held in North America

Question

Is this prevalence toward North America biased by the geographical demographics of those responding to the poll? E.g., could the ~ 2:1 preference for a North American conference venue over a European conference venue be attributed to a (possibly) similarly larger number of respondents from North America who (speculatively) might favor a "local" conference?


Answer

It does not appear so.

While the country of residence of poll respondents was not individually inquired, nearly all  of the respondents to the SEC2011/2012 poll, solicited through SEML, were SEML subscribers. Michael Gill, SEML Moderator, has informed (as of 09 April 2009) that:

    47.4% of SEML subscribers are European (including the UK), and
   36.6 % of SEML subscribers are North American
                                (USA, Canada & Mexico)

If the  geographic distribution amongst the SEML subscribers is representative of those responding to the poll, then it does not appear that North Americans have not "stuffed the ballot box" by strength of numbers.

North American SEML subscribers  are "out-numbered" by Europeans by a factor of 1.3x, yet, collectively, twice as many poll respondents favored North America over Europe by ~ 2:1 for the next SEC conference site.



[3] Preferential Time of Year (MONTHS)

Half of the survey responders (50 people) responded with time of year preference.  Of those:

  POSITIVE: 
      August - most preferable month (64%) with only 19% indicating least favorable (second least of all)
      July - second most preferable (60%) with only 12% indicating least favorable
  NEGATIVE:
      December/January - Very unfavorable. 67% to 59% would not attend
      September-May - Generally unfavorable. < ~ 1/4  would prefer these months

Analysis: The conference should be in August or July
Good: Are there any calendar months that would be significantly preferable over others?
Bad:  Are there any months that would preclude your attendance?


 [4] COORDINATE (hold in concert with) an Eclipse-Event if in 2011 or if in 2012?

NOTE: Those polled who did not have a year preference were asked to respond about eclipse-event coordination for a conference either in 2011 or 2012, while those with a year preference were asked to select only from amongst the choices in their preferential year.  Thus, there are more than 100 responses to [4A] and [4B] combined; those with no year preference were asked to respond to both [4a] and [4b].

(A - 2011): This question was asked of the majority (see [1]) who either favored holding the next SEC in 2011 or who had no year preference.  Sixty-eight people (68% of poll respondents) responded to this question.  Of the 68 responding:

  35% of those had no preference regarding conference/event coordination.
 
  Of the 65% with a preference:
             59% did NOT want the conference scheduled in conjunction with an eclipse event.
             14% preferred scheduling the conference in conjunction with the 01 June PSE
             < 7% individually preferred any of the other PSE's or LSEs in 2011

Analysis: If the conference is held in 2011 (to satisfy the majority with a 2011 preference) it should NOT be held in conjunction with a PSE/TLE.


(B - 2012): The same question was asked of the minority (see [1]) who either favored the next SEC in 2012 or who had no preference for the year.  Forty-three people (43% of poll respondents) responded to this question with (contrary to those polled for 2011) 90% of those responding favoring coordinating a 2012 conference with an "eclipse"-event.  The plurality favored the 13 Nov TSE in Cairns (39% of those responding to this question; 17/100 people of the the survey overall) with the 06 June Transit of Venus a close second (35% of those responding to this question; 15/100 people of the the survey overall).


Analysis: If the conference is held in 2012 , it should be held in conjunction with TSE2012 or ToV2012.
Caveat: Significantly more people, however, favor a 2011 conference unassociated with an eclipse event.



[5] Most Important CONSTRAINT

All 100 respondents answered this question.
 57% identified cost of travel as the most important constraint.


Analysis: The conference should be planned with cost to participants in mind and held at an economical



 [5a] Are you likely to attend?

One hundred people (all responding to the poll) answered this question.

  25% responded YES (very likely barring unforeseen circumstances)
  71% responded MAYBE (depending upon when and where the conference is held)
    4% responded NO (almost certainly/definately) will not attend.

[5b] If uncertain about attending (71%), what might motivate you to attend?
    

Other Comments, Suggestions, Other Thoughts...

There obviously is no lack of diversity in opinions here!
(Those responding with personal comments to me via the survey are not included, but many thanks to all who had nice things to say about the survey itself, [and even those who had not such nice things -- I really did try to phrase all the questions, many suggested by others, in an unbiased and unambiguous manner]).

 - Glenn Schneider, 4/12/2009